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Tuesday, February 22, 2011

Quick thoughts on oil

Monday saw a continuation of uprisings in the Middle East, as the successful toppling of the dictatorship in Egypt has left citizens in nearby countries to catch the contagious bug of freedom that's swept the region.  Libya seems to be next in line, as protesters have literally taken control of cities in an effort to oust their dictator, Moammar Gadhafi.  The government there has reacted violently, however, bringing up many human rights issues. The economic implications of this uprising are important.  Oil companies are evacuating as fast as they can, most halting production until the political environment calms down.  With about 4.4% of the OPEC's oil reserves, this short term restriction of supply will have some impact on oil prices.  As basic economics dictates, ceteris paribus, a decrease in supply will push the price higher. If this is unclear, the chart I drew above hopefully helps to visually explain this concept.  Brent crude oil did indeed rise on Monday, shooting up to $108 in London trading.  The stock market in the United States was closed for President's Day, but opened up low today, after the European and Asian markets were pummeled yesterday with fear. It is still early in the trading day, but my sole oil-related stock, Gulfport Energy (GPOR) gapped up on the open.  My speculative energy bet, the call option on the triple leveraged ERX, also has done well so far this morning. Since it is still early in the trading day, on the first day of the week, my holdings remain the same as Friday, with no new trades yet.

Monday, February 22th, 2011 (morning)
Weekly Change: N/A
Daily Changes: N/A 
Current Porfolio Value ($20000 on January 24th, 2011): $21798.23  (Up 8.99%)
February Performance: Up $2878.34 
Holdings:
APKT - 100 shares - $72.92/share
LULU - 100 shares - $82.12/share
ARUN - 100 shares - $31.22/share
GPOR - 200 shares - $27.08/share
MDF  - 400 shares - $5.15/ share
ZAGG May 21 $10.00 Call - 5 contracts - $1.40
ERX July 19 $86.00 Call - 1 contracts - $10.00

Trades: Monday, February 22nd, 2011 (morning)
none.

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